Middle East Tensions Test the Resilience of Africa's Economic Recovery
The African Development Bank's 2026 outlook warns that disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could slow growth and intensify inflation across energy-importing economies.
Higher oil prices, insurance premiums, and logistics costs are raising production and import expenses. Eastern and northern Africa are particularly exposed, while some oil exporters in Central Africa may receive a short-term revenue boost.
The bank expects average inflation to remain elevated as fuel costs pass through to transport, electricity, food, and exchange rates. Limited fiscal space makes broad subsidies difficult to sustain.
Long-term resilience will depend on industrial diversification, stronger local manufacturing, regional value chains, and deeper implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area.